Neftchi vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
CupQuarter-finalsKick-off on October 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Istiqlol, Fergana
The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
Neftchi starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,853 vs 1,703).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Neftchi vs Lokomotiv
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Neftchi
4-3-3- 7A. Ismailov
- 22Alisher Odilov
- 20A. G'ofurov
- 5I. Alibaev
- 10J. Iskanderov
- 31Yan Sasse
- 52K. Kouao
- 4B. Ciger
- 15N. Abduganiyev
- 34F. Sayfiyev
- 1B. Ergashev
Lokomotiv
4-3-3- 11T. Abdukholikov
- 9S. Nurulloyev
- 10S. Shodiboev
- 17S. Mirzaev
- 8B. Tupliyev
- 99J. Yakhshiboyev
- 18O. Kucherenko
- 28S. Muhammadiyev
- 33O. Zoteev
- 26A. Yuldashev
- 1A. Kozlov
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:08 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Neftchi have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Lokomotiv have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sogdiana(away) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Neftchi(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Navbahor(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Neftchi wins, 1 draw, 1 Lokomotiv win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv 0-1 Neftchi | Super League |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Neftchi 3-1 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Lokomotiv 2-3 Neftchi | Super League |
| Jun 27, 2024 | Neftchi 1-1 Lokomotiv | Super League |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Lokomotiv 1-3 Neftchi | Super League |
| May 5, 2022 | Neftchi 0-1 Lokomotiv | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab AI model makes Neftchi the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is Neftchi vs Lokomotiv played?
- Neftchi vs Lokomotiv is played on October 20, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Istiqlol, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.