Pakhtakor vs Neftchi: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, Tashkent
The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Pakhtakor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Pakhtakor (1,853) and Neftchi (1,866).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pakhtakor have 9 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats; Neftchi have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nasaf(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Al Hussein(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Buxoro(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 1-4 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Andijan(away) | 3-0 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Qizilqum(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(away) | 0-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Pakhtakor win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Neftchi win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2026 | Neftchi 0-1 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Neftchi 1-0 Pakhtakor | Super Cup |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Pakhtakor 2-1 Neftchi | Super League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Neftchi 0-4 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Pakhtakor 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
| Jul 1, 2024 | Neftchi 0-2 Pakhtakor | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Pakhtakor score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor | 1.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 0.9 | 8 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pakhtakor sit 2nd in Super League (26 points from 11 matches) and Neftchi sit 1st (28 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 3 | 28 |
| 1 | Neftchi | 19 | 14 | 3 | 2 | 45 | 10 | 45 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 26 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 18 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 30 | 17 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
- The Footlab model makes Neftchi the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Pakhtakor.
- Where and when is Pakhtakor vs Neftchi played?
- Pakhtakor vs Neftchi is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.