Pakhtakor vs Neftchi: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, Tashkent
The Footlab AI model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Neftchi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Pakhtakor wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Pakhtakor (1,891) and Neftchi (1,864).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pakhtakor
4-2-3-1- 29Aymen Hussein
- 21B. Resan
- 7K. Alijonov
- 50Flamarion
- 27S. Sobirkho'jaev
- 23Abdurauf Bo'riyev
- 55M. Abdumajidov
- 4Zayed Tahseen
- 8D. Saitov
- 34S. Nasrullayev
- 35S. Kuvvatov
Neftchi
4-3-3- 7A. Ismailov
- 22Alisher Odilov
- 18S. Perica
- 5I. Alibaev
- 10J. Iskanderov
- 77Ratinho
- 52K. Kouao
- 4B. Ciger
- 15N. Abduganiyev
- 6I. Yuldoshev
- 1B. Ergashev
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pakhtakor have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeat; Neftchi have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Al-Qadisiyah FC(home) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Bunyodkor(home) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mash'al(away) | 2-1 | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Ahli Jeddah(away) | 1-1 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 3-1 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Al-Nassr(away) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Xorazm(home) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Surkhon(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Pakhtakor wins, 1 draw, 2 Neftchi wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Neftchi 1-0 Pakhtakor | Cup |
| Apr 9, 2026 | Neftchi 0-1 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Neftchi 1-0 Pakhtakor | Super Cup |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Pakhtakor 2-1 Neftchi | Super League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Neftchi 0-4 Pakhtakor | Super League |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Pakhtakor 0-0 Neftchi | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Pakhtakor score 1.6 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Neftchi score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakhtakor | 1.6 | 0.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Neftchi | 2.0 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pakhtakor sit 1st in Super League (52 points from 23 matches) and Neftchi sit 2nd (52 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42 | 21 | 52 |
| 2 | Neftchi | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52 | 19 | 52 |
A question about Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pakhtakor vs Neftchi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Pakhtakor the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Neftchi.
- Where and when is Pakhtakor vs Neftchi played?
- Pakhtakor vs Neftchi is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Paxtakor Markaziy Stadion, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.