Match

Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)

Negelle ArsiBahardar

The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 37%, against 35% for a draw and 28% for Bahardar. The most likely score is 0-0. If Negelle Arsi wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 4,871 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar?

A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Negelle Arsi (1,584) and Bahardar (1,563).

37%35%28%
Negelle Arsi winDrawBahardar win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Negelle Arsi

Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.

Bahardar

Not enough data to predict the Bahardar lineup.

Computed on November 8, 2026 at 02:31 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Negelle Arsi have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Bahardar have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Negelle Arsi
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026Sheger Ketema(away)2-1Premier League
Oct 26, 2026Adama Kenema(home)1-0Premier League
Oct 21, 2026Ethiopia Bunna(away)3-0Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Mebrat Hayl(away)0-0Premier League
Oct 10, 2026Kedus Giorgis(away)1-1Premier League
Bahardar
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Fasil Ketema(away)2-2Premier League
Oct 22, 2026Welayta Dicha(away)3-1Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Halaba Ketema(away)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Hadiya Hosaena(away)1-0Premier League
Jul 3, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(away)2-2Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Negelle Arsi wins, 2 draws, 0 Bahardar wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 9, 2026Bahardar 0-0 Negelle ArsiPremier League
Nov 2, 2025Negelle Arsi 0-0 BahardarPremier League

Last archived meeting: Bahardar vs Negelle Arsi on Mar 9, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bahardar score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 26% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Negelle Arsi1.10.885/157/15
Bahardar0.90.965/153/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Negelle Arsi sit 1st in Premier League (11 points from 5 matches) and Bahardar sit 7th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Negelle Arsi53207211
7Bahardar4211647

A question about Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar?
The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 37%, against 35% for a draw and 28% for Bahardar.
Where and when is Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar played?
Negelle Arsi vs Bahardar is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 26% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Negelle Arsi and Bahardar

Ready to know everything about football?