Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Halaba Ketema. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,597 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema?
Negelle Arsi starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,584 vs 1,475).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Negelle Arsi
Not enough data to predict the Negelle Arsi lineup.
Halaba Ketema
Not enough data to predict the Halaba Ketema lineup.
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 04:50 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Negelle Arsi have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Halaba Ketema have 2, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Sheger Ketema(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Adama Kenema(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Ethiopia Bunna(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Mebrat Hayl(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Kedus Giorgis(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Hadiya Hosaena(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Welayta Dicha(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Fasil Ketema(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Bahardar(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Welwalo Adigrat Uni(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Negelle Arsi score 1.1 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Halaba Ketema score 1.0 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negelle Arsi | 1.1 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Halaba Ketema | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1 | 3/5 | 2/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Negelle Arsi sit 1st in Premier League (11 points from 5 matches) and Halaba Ketema sit 5th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Negelle Arsi | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Halaba Ketema | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema?
- The Footlab AI model makes Negelle Arsi the favourite at 59%, against 26% for a draw and 15% for Halaba Ketema.
- Where and when is Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema played?
- Negelle Arsi vs Halaba Ketema is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 16, 2027Adama KenemavsHadiya Hosaena
- Jan 16, 2027Awassa KenemavsWelwalo Adigrat Uni
- Jan 16, 2027Ethiopia BunnavsEthiopian Medhin
- Jan 16, 2027Kedus GiorgisvsEthiopia Nigd Bank
- Jan 16, 2027Sidama BunnavsBahardar
- Jan 16, 2027Mebrat HaylvsMekelakeya
- Jan 16, 2027Sheger KetemavsWelayta Dicha
- Jan 16, 2027Gamo ChenchavsFasil Ketema