Match

Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya: prediction and stats

Premier LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Addis Ababa Stadium, Addis Abeba

Mebrat HaylMekelakeya

The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 39%, against 36% for a draw and 25% for Mebrat Hayl. The most likely score is 0-0. If Mekelakeya wins, the most likely score is 0-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?

A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Mebrat Hayl (1,524) and Mekelakeya (1,589).

25%36%39%
Mebrat Hayl winDrawMekelakeya win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mebrat Hayl

4-3-3
  1. 7A. Tiruneh
  2. 9H. Hussien
  3. 10G. Eyob
  1. 14A. Tesfaye
  2. 17H. Shewalem
  3. 5H. Gebrehiwot
  1. 13B. B. Babulo
  2. 4B. Woldeyohannes
  3. 21Y. Yemane
  4. 31B. Asresahegn
  1. 45A. Tesfaye

Mekelakeya

4-3-3
  1. 27A. Yigzaw
  2. 14Mohammed Abera
  3. 35C. Kudjoe
  1. 7Bereket Desta Dana
  2. 10Abdulkarim Worku
  3. 19C. Gugsa
  1. 6G. Hagos
  2. 34N. Hailu
  3. 2F. Jemal
  4. 22C. Menberu
  1. 1Nafian Legason Alionzi

Computed on November 6, 2026 at 08:01 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mebrat Hayl have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Mekelakeya have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mebrat Hayl
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Kedus Giorgis(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 25, 2026Ethiopia Bunna(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 20, 2026Sheger Ketema(home)1-0Premier League
Oct 16, 2026Negelle Arsi(home)0-0Premier League
Oct 9, 2026Adama Kenema(home)0-1Premier League
Mekelakeya
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 1, 2026Sidama Bunna(away)0-0Premier League
Oct 27, 2026Ethiopian Medhin(away)3-1Premier League
Oct 22, 2026Gamo Chencha(away)1-0Premier League
Oct 18, 2026Ethiopia Nigd Bank(home)0-1Premier League
Oct 11, 2026Awassa Kenema(away)1-0Premier League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mebrat Hayl win, 4 draws, 1 Mekelakeya win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 29, 2026Mebrat Hayl 0-1 MekelakeyaPremier League
Dec 21, 2025Mekelakeya 0-0 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Jun 15, 2025Mekelakeya 0-1 Mebrat HaylPremier League
Nov 25, 2024Mebrat Hayl 1-1 MekelakeyaPremier League
May 23, 2023Mebrat Hayl 2-2 MekelakeyaPremier League
Nov 28, 2022Mekelakeya 1-1 Mebrat HaylPremier League

Last archived meeting: Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya on Apr 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mebrat Hayl score 0.8 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Mekelakeya score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 22% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mebrat Hayl0.80.856/154/15
Mekelakeya0.90.784/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mebrat Hayl sit 8th in Premier League (7 points from 5 matches) and Mekelakeya sit 2nd (10 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Mekelakeya53115210
8Mebrat Hayl5212227

A question about Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya?
The Footlab AI model makes Mekelakeya the favourite at 39%, against 36% for a draw and 25% for Mebrat Hayl.
Where and when is Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya played?
Mebrat Hayl vs Mekelakeya is played on January 16, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Addis Ababa Stadium, in the Premier League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 22% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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