New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipRound of 16Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, Albuquerque, New Mexico
The Footlab AI model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Phoenix Rising. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.5% of the 3,608 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
On Elo ratings, New Mexico United has 1,889 points and Phoenix Rising 1,801.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
New Mexico United
4-2-3-1- 10G. Hurst
- 15O. Jabang
- 14C. Dennis
- 21V. Noël
- 7N. Reid-Stephen
- 19Z. Bailey
- 3C. Gloster
- 4K. Keller
- 2N. Hämäläinen
- 24T. Blackett
- 13Kristopher Shakes
Phoenix Rising
4-2-3-1- 11G. Studenhofft
- 17J. Scearce
- 13J. Moursou
- 8D. Gómez
- 7I. Sacko
- 28K. Arase
- 4P. Mar Boye
- 51A. Essengue
- 48T. Schmitt
- 87Daniel Flores
- 1P. Rakovsky
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 04:18 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, New Mexico United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Phoenix Rising have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Oct 18, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-1 | USL Championship |
| Oct 1, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 3-3 | USL Championship |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 3-1 | USL Championship |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Las Vegas Lights(home) | 3-2 | USL Championship |
| Oct 4, 2026 | New Mexico United(away) | 1-2 | USL Championship |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oakland Roots(away) | 0-3 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 New Mexico United wins, 1 draw, 2 Phoenix Rising wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | New Mexico United 2-1 Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
| Jun 7, 2026 | New Mexico United 4-0 Phoenix Rising | USL League One Cup |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Phoenix Rising 3-0 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Phoenix Rising 0-1 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Jun 1, 2025 | Phoenix Rising 3-3 New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| May 11, 2025 | New Mexico United 1-2 Phoenix Rising | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising on Oct 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
New Mexico United score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Phoenix Rising score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico United | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Phoenix Rising | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
New Mexico United sit 1st in USL Championship (52 points from 30 matches) and Phoenix Rising sit 8th (40 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 34 | 52 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 46 | 40 |
A question about New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
- The Footlab AI model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Phoenix Rising.
- Where and when is New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising played?
- New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising is played on November 1, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.