Newroz vs Diyala: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Newroz the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Diyala. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newroz vs Diyala?
Newroz starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (1,577 vs 1,468).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Newroz vs Diyala
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Newroz
Not enough data to predict the Newroz lineup.
Diyala
Not enough data to predict the Diyala lineup.
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newroz have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Diyala have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Naft(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Gharraf(home) | 3-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Erbil(away) | 0-2 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Newroz wins, 0 draws, 0 Diyala wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2025 | Diyala 1-4 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| Jan 3, 2025 | Newroz 2-1 Diyala | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Newroz score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Diyala score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newroz | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Diyala | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newroz sit 2nd in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Diyala sit 11th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 11 | Diyala | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 9 |
A question about Newroz vs Diyala?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newroz vs Diyala?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newroz the favourite at 58%, against 25% for a draw and 17% for Diyala.
- Where and when is Newroz vs Diyala played?
- Newroz vs Diyala is played on October 23, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.