Naft vs Newroz: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Al-Madina International Stadium, Baghdad
The Footlab AI model makes Newroz the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Naft. The most likely score is 0-0. If Newroz wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naft vs Newroz?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Naft (1,565) and Newroz (1,579).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Naft vs Newroz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Naft
Not enough data to predict the Naft lineup.
Newroz
Not enough data to predict the Newroz lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naft have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Newroz have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Diyala(home) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Mosul(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Karbala(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Al-Karma(away) | 0-3 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Zakho(away) | 1-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ghaz Al Shamal(away) | 0-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Al-Jolan SC(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 3-0 | Iraqi League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Naft Maysan(away) | 2-0 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Naft wins, 1 draw, 0 Newroz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 1, 2026 | Naft 2-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
| May 12, 2025 | Newroz 0-1 Naft | Iraqi League |
| Jan 20, 2025 | Naft 1-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Naft score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Newroz score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 27% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naft | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Newroz | 1.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naft sit 5th in Iraqi League (18 points from 9 matches) and Newroz sit 2nd (18 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Newroz | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Naft | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
A question about Naft vs Newroz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naft vs Newroz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Newroz the favourite at 37%, against 34% for a draw and 29% for Naft.
- Where and when is Naft vs Newroz played?
- Naft vs Newroz is played on December 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Al-Madina International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 27% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.