Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 3Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Nova Cidade. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade?
Niteroiense starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,674 vs 1,566).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Niteroiense have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Nova Cidade have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Paduano(home) | 5-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Friburguense(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 2-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Niteroiense win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nova Cidade win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Nova Cidade 0-0 Niteroiense | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Nova Cidade vs Niteroiense on Sep 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Niteroiense score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niteroiense | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Niteroiense sit 5th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and Nova Cidade sit 7th (16 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Niteroiense | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
| 7 | Nova Cidade | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade?
- The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Nova Cidade.
- Where and when is Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade played?
- Niteroiense vs Nova Cidade is played on September 19, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.