Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Duque de Caxias. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Duque de Caxias (1,621) and Niteroiense (1,674).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Duque de Caxias have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Niteroiense have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Paduano(home) | 5-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Friburguense(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 2-3 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Duque de Caxias win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Niteroiense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Niteroiense 0-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Niteroiense vs Duque de Caxias on Nov 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Niteroiense score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Niteroiense | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Duque de Caxias sit 4th in Carioca - 2 (18 points from 11 matches) and Niteroiense sit 5th (16 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
| 5 | Niteroiense | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense?
- The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Duque de Caxias.
- Where and when is Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense played?
- Duque de Caxias vs Niteroiense is played on September 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.