Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for São Cristóvão RJ. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Niteroiense (1,677) and São Cristóvão RJ (1,618).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Niteroiense have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; São Cristóvão RJ have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Paduano(home) | 5-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Friburguense(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Campo Grande(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 2-3 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(away) | 1-1 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | CEAC / Araruama(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Serrano RJ(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Serrano RJ(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Artsul(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Niteroiense win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 São Cristóvão RJ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | Niteroiense 1-0 São Cristóvão RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ on Sep 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Niteroiense score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; São Cristóvão RJ score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niteroiense | 1.3 | 1.4 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| São Cristóvão RJ | 1.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Niteroiense sit 5th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and São Cristóvão RJ sit 2nd (19 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | São Cristóvão RJ | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 19 |
| 5 | Niteroiense | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ?
- The Footlab model makes Niteroiense the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for São Cristóvão RJ.
- Where and when is Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ played?
- Niteroiense vs São Cristóvão RJ is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC), in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.