Goytacaz vs Duque de Caxias: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Ary de Oliveira e Souza, Campos de Goytacaz
The Footlab model makes Goytacaz the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Duque de Caxias. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Goytacaz vs Duque de Caxias?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Goytacaz (1,614) and Duque de Caxias (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Goytacaz have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Duque de Caxias have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 0-3 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | América RJ(home) | 0-3 | Copa Rio |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Macaé(home) | 4-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Macaé(away) | 1-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Nov 23, 2025 | SE Belford Roxo(away) | 2-1 | Carioca B2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Goytacaz win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Duque de Caxias win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 2-0 Goytacaz | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Goytacaz 0-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Goytacaz 0-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Goytacaz 1-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 21, 2020 | Goytacaz 3-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Aug 3, 2019 | Duque de Caxias 3-1 Goytacaz | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Goytacaz on Nov 18, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Goytacaz score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goytacaz | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Goytacaz vs Duque de Caxias?
- The Footlab model makes Goytacaz the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Duque de Caxias.
- Where and when is Goytacaz vs Duque de Caxias played?
- Goytacaz vs Duque de Caxias is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Ary de Oliveira e Souza, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.