Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Audax Rio the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Nova Cidade. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Audax Rio (1,572) and Nova Cidade (1,566).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Audax Rio have 3 wins, 1 draws and 11 defeats; Nova Cidade have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 1-2 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Resende(home) | 2-0 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 20, 2026 | CFRJ / Maricá(away) | 0-1 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Pérolas Negras(home) | 0-1 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Americano Campos(away) | 1-3 | Carioca A2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Audax Rio win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Nova Cidade win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2020 | Audax Rio 2-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Jul 6, 2019 | Audax Rio 4-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade on Sep 27, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Audax Rio score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Audax Rio | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nova Cidade | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade?
- The Footlab model makes Audax Rio the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Nova Cidade.
- Where and when is Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade played?
- Audax Rio vs Nova Cidade is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Proletário Guilherme da Silveira Filho, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.