NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
The Footlab model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for NK Varazdin. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (1,890) and NK Varazdin (1,967).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; NK Varazdin have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rudes(away) | 1-4 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Osijek(away) | 0-1 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Istra 1961(away) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sturm Graz II(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(home) | 2-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 4-1 | HNL |
| Aug 2, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 NK Varazdin win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | NK Varazdin 1-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Mar 7, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-1 NK Varazdin | HNL |
| Dec 7, 2025 | NK Varazdin 4-2 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Sep 20, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin | HNL |
| Apr 26, 2025 | NK Varazdin 2-1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | HNL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1-0 NK Varazdin | HNL |
Last archived meeting: NK Varazdin vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score 1.3 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; NK Varazdin score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| NK Varazdin | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb sit 6th in HNL (6 points from 4 matches) and NK Varazdin sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin?
- The Footlab model makes NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for NK Varazdin.
- Where and when is NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin played?
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs NK Varazdin is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Maksimir, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.