HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Poljud, Split
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for HNK Hajduk Split. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb?
Dinamo Zagreb starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (2,174 vs 2,027).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Hajduk Split have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Dinamo Zagreb have 12, 3 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Raków Częstochowa(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Gorica(away) | 2-1 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 3-1 | HNL |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Viking(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Rudes(home) | 4-0 | HNL |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 5-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 HNK Hajduk Split win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Dinamo Zagreb win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-0 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Mar 8, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split 1-3 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
| Sep 20, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| May 3, 2025 | HNK Hajduk Split 1-3 Dinamo Zagreb | HNL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Dinamo Zagreb 2-2 HNK Hajduk Split | HNL |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Hajduk Split score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Zagreb score 2.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Hajduk Split | 2.5 | 1.1 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2.4 | 0.7 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Hajduk Split sit 4th in HNL (7 points from 4 matches) and Dinamo Zagreb sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | HNK Hajduk Split | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Zagreb the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for HNK Hajduk Split.
- Where and when is HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb played?
- HNK Hajduk Split vs Dinamo Zagreb is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Poljud, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.