NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski Stadion, Koprivnica
The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for NK Slaven Belupo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka?
HNK Rijeka starts as the favourite with a 187-point Elo edge (2,015 vs 1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NK Slaven Belupo have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; HNK Rijeka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | HNK Gorica(home) | 2-0 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Istra 1961(away) | 0-3 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | NK Varazdin(home) | 1-4 | HNL |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Sesvete(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Istra 1961(home) | 3-2 | HNL |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | NK Varazdin(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ilves(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Ilves(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 NK Slaven Belupo win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 HNK Rijeka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 2-0 NK Slaven Belupo | Cup |
| Apr 4, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo 0-2 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HNK Rijeka 2-2 NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| Oct 18, 2025 | NK Slaven Belupo 1-1 HNK Rijeka | HNL |
| Aug 3, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 2-0 NK Slaven Belupo | HNL |
| May 29, 2025 | HNK Rijeka 1-0 NK Slaven Belupo | Cup |
Last archived meeting: HNK Rijeka vs NK Slaven Belupo on Apr 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
NK Slaven Belupo score 1.4 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; HNK Rijeka score 1.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Slaven Belupo | 1.4 | 2.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| HNK Rijeka | 1.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NK Slaven Belupo sit 8th in HNL (3 points from 4 matches) and HNK Rijeka sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 8 | NK Slaven Belupo | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Rijeka the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for NK Slaven Belupo.
- Where and when is NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka played?
- NK Slaven Belupo vs HNK Rijeka is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski Stadion, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.