HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961: prediction and stats
HNLRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)ŠRC Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica
The Footlab model makes HNK Gorica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Istra 1961. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate HNK Gorica (1,816) and Istra 1961 (1,881).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Gorica have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Istra 1961 have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(away) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Aug 16, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(home) | 1-2 | HNL |
| Aug 8, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(away) | 1-3 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Osijek(home) | 0-2 | HNL |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | HNK Rijeka(away) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Aug 15, 2026 | NK Slaven Belupo(home) | 3-0 | HNL |
| Aug 9, 2026 | HNK Hajduk Split(away) | 2-2 | HNL |
| Aug 1, 2026 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home) | 2-3 | HNL |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lecce(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 HNK Gorica win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Istra 1961 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Istra 1961 0-2 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Nov 23, 2025 | HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Istra 1961 1-0 HNK Gorica | HNL |
| Apr 12, 2025 | HNK Gorica 3-2 Istra 1961 | HNL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Gorica | HNL |
Last archived meeting: HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
HNK Gorica score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HNK Gorica | 0.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Istra 1961 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
HNK Gorica sit 10th in HNL (0 points from 4 matches) and Istra 1961 sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Istra 1961 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
- The Footlab model makes HNK Gorica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Istra 1961.
- Where and when is HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 played?
- HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at ŠRC Velika Gorica, in the HNL.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.