Match

HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961: prediction and stats

HNLRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)ŠRC Velika Gorica, Velika Gorica

HNK GoricaIstra 1961

The Footlab model makes HNK Gorica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Istra 1961. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?

A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate HNK Gorica (1,816) and Istra 1961 (1,881).

HNK Gorica win43 %
Draw28 %
Istra 1961 win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, HNK Gorica have 4 wins, 0 draws and 11 defeats; Istra 1961 have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

HNK Gorica
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026NK Slaven Belupo(away)0-2HNL
Aug 16, 2026HNK Hajduk Split(home)1-2HNL
Aug 8, 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(away)1-3HNL
Aug 1, 2026NK Osijek(home)0-2HNL
Jul 23, 2026Shakhtar Donetsk(home)0-2Friendlies Clubs
Istra 1961
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 23, 2026HNK Rijeka(away)2-3HNL
Aug 15, 2026NK Slaven Belupo(home)3-0HNL
Aug 9, 2026HNK Hajduk Split(away)2-2HNL
Aug 1, 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb(home)2-3HNL
Jul 25, 2026Lecce(away)2-2Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 HNK Gorica win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Istra 1961 win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 27, 2026HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961HNL
Feb 21, 2026Istra 1961 0-2 HNK GoricaHNL
Nov 23, 2025HNK Gorica 1-0 Istra 1961HNL
Aug 29, 2025Istra 1961 1-0 HNK GoricaHNL
Apr 12, 2025HNK Gorica 3-2 Istra 1961HNL
Jan 31, 2025Istra 1961 0-0 HNK GoricaHNL

Last archived meeting: HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 on Apr 27, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

HNK Gorica score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Istra 1961 score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
HNK Gorica0.71.535/155/15
Istra 19611.31.638/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

HNK Gorica sit 10th in HNL (0 points from 4 matches) and Istra 1961 sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7Istra 19614112984
10HNK Gorica4004290

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961?
The Footlab model makes HNK Gorica the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Istra 1961.
Where and when is HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 played?
HNK Gorica vs Istra 1961 is played on December 12, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at ŠRC Velika Gorica, in the HNL.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: HNK Gorica and Istra 1961

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