Noblejas vs Marchamalo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Group 18 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Marchamalo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Noblejas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Marchamalo wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Noblejas vs Marchamalo?
Marchamalo starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,728 vs 1,597).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Noblejas vs Marchamalo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Noblejas
4-3-3- RRaúl Alcalá
- SSergio Nieto
- CCarlos Domenech
- CCarlos Gómez
- MMiguel Chaves Aznar
- SSergio Bazaga
- FFernando Matallanos
- JJuanlu
- CChristian Zielinski
- OOsvaldo Rodrigo Cáceres Vera
- JJavier Torrecilla Guerrero
Marchamalo
Not enough data to predict the Marchamalo lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:46 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Noblejas have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Marchamalo have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Torrijos(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Illescas(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Villarrobledo(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Toledo(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Clemente(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Almansa(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Tarancón(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Manchego(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guadalajara II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Huracán Balazote(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Noblejas wins, 1 draw, 1 Marchamalo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2025 | Noblejas 1-1 Marchamalo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Marchamalo 3-0 Noblejas | Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 |
Last archived meeting: Noblejas vs Marchamalo on May 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Noblejas score 1.1 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Marchamalo score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noblejas | 1.1 | 2.2 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Marchamalo | 1.3 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Noblejas sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 (7 points from 5 matches) and Marchamalo sit 9th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Marchamalo | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 8 |
| 12 | Noblejas | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Noblejas vs Marchamalo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Noblejas vs Marchamalo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Marchamalo the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Noblejas.
- Where and when is Noblejas vs Marchamalo played?
- Noblejas vs Marchamalo is played on April 11, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 18.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.