Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio San Francesco, Nocera Inferiore
The Footlab AI model makes Nocerina the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Virtus Francavilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nocerina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Nocerina (1,759) and Virtus Francavilla (1,774).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nocerina
Not enough data to predict the Nocerina lineup.
Virtus Francavilla
Not enough data to predict the Virtus Francavilla lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 01:24 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nocerina have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Virtus Francavilla have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brindisi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turris(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Melfi(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Palmese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fidelis Andria(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Forio 2014(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Gravina(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Gladiator(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Nocerina wins, 0 draws, 0 Virtus Francavilla wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2025 | Virtus Francavilla 1-3 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Nocerina 2-0 Virtus Francavilla | Serie D - Girone H |
Last archived meeting: Virtus Francavilla vs Nocerina on Apr 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nocerina score 0.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Virtus Francavilla score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nocerina | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Virtus Francavilla | 1.6 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nocerina sit 8th in Serie D - Girone H (13 points from 7 matches) and Virtus Francavilla sit 1st (18 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Virtus Francavilla | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 10 | 18 |
| 8 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
A question about Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nocerina the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Virtus Francavilla.
- Where and when is Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla played?
- Nocerina vs Virtus Francavilla is played on November 22, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio San Francesco, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.