Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Hiiu staadion, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Nõmme Kalju II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
Elva starts as the favourite with a 215-point Elo edge (1,384 vs 1,169).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nõmme Kalju II have 1 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats; Elva have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(home) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme United II(away) | 0-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Flora II(away) | 0-3 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maardu(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Joker(home) | 3-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nõmme Kalju II win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Elva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 5, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II 2-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 2, 2026 | Elva 2-4 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Elva 0-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Nõmme Kalju II 1-1 Elva | Esiliiga A |
| May 11, 2025 | Elva 2-1 Nõmme Kalju II | Esiliiga A |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Nõmme Kalju II 0-2 Elva | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva on Jul 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nõmme Kalju II score 1.1 and concede 2.9 goals per match over their last 15; Elva score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme Kalju II | 1.1 | 2.9 | 0 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Elva | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nõmme Kalju II sit 7th in Esiliiga A (17 points from 15 matches) and Elva sit 4th (23 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Elva | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 23 |
| 4 | Elva | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 42 | 37 | 38 |
| 7 | Nõmme Kalju II | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 25 | 35 | 17 |
| 10 | Nõmme Kalju II | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 33 | 67 | 19 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva?
- The Footlab model makes Elva the favourite at 65%, against 19% for a draw and 16% for Nõmme Kalju II.
- Where and when is Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva played?
- Nõmme Kalju II vs Elva is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Hiiu staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.