Maardu vs Flora II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Maardu linnastaadion, Maardu
The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Maardu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maardu vs Flora II?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Maardu (1,411) and Flora II (1,373).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maardu have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Flora II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tallinna Kalev(away) | 3-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Tallinn(home) | 1-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Elva(away) | 0-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Viimsi(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tartu Welco(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 3-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 0-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Maardu win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Flora II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Flora II 1-3 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Maardu 3-2 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
| May 1, 2026 | Flora II 5-0 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Maardu 0-0 Flora II | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 15, 2021 | Flora II 1-8 Maardu | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2021 | Maardu 1-3 Flora II | Esiliiga A |
How many goals should we expect?
Maardu score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Flora II score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maardu | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Flora II | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maardu sit 8th in Esiliiga A (16 points from 15 matches) and Flora II sit 3rd (26 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Flora II | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 24 | 26 |
| 3 | Flora II | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 57 | 42 | 41 |
| 6 | Maardu | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 39 | 52 | 35 |
| 8 | Maardu | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 33 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maardu vs Flora II?
- The Footlab model makes Flora II the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Maardu.
- Where and when is Maardu vs Flora II played?
- Maardu vs Flora II is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Maardu linnastaadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.