Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II: prediction and stats
Esiliiga ARegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC)Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, Tartu
The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 17% for Nõmme United II. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II?
Tartu Welco starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (1,450 vs 1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tartu Welco have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Nõmme United II have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(away) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 4-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Flora II(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Kose(away) | 8-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elva(away) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Viimsi(away) | 1-4 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Tallinn(away) | 1-1 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Nõmme Kalju II(home) | 2-0 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FCI Levadia II(home) | 1-2 | Esiliiga A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tartu Welco(home) | 2-1 | Esiliiga A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Tartu Welco win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Nõmme United II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nõmme United II 2-1 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Tartu Welco 5-2 Nõmme United II | Esiliiga A |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Nõmme United II 1-3 Tartu Welco | Esiliiga A |
Last archived meeting: Nõmme United II vs Tartu Welco on Aug 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tartu Welco score 3.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Nõmme United II score 1.5 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tartu Welco | 3.3 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Nõmme United II | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tartu Welco sit 1st in Esiliiga A (38 points from 16 matches) and Nõmme United II sit 6th (18 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 47 | 19 | 38 |
| 1 | Tartu Welco | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 74 | 35 | 54 |
| 6 | Nõmme United II | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 29 | 18 |
| 8 | Nõmme United II | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 43 | 56 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II?
- The Footlab model makes Tartu Welco the favourite at 67%, against 16% for a draw and 17% for Nõmme United II.
- Where and when is Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II played?
- Tartu Welco vs Nõmme United II is played on October 18, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC) at Annelinna Gümnaasium staadion, in the Esiliiga A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.