Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel: prediction and stats
Oberliga - Schleswig-HolsteinSchleswig-Holstein - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)A-Platz Satrup, Mittelangeln
The Footlab model makes Kilia Kiel the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Nordmark Satrup. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel?
Kilia Kiel starts as the favourite with a 170-point Elo edge (1,927 vs 1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nordmark Satrup have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Kilia Kiel have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldenburger SV(home) | 1-3 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lübeck II(away) | 4-2 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Eckernförder SV(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Phönix L. II(away) | 2-4 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| May 16, 2026 | VfR Neumünster(home) | 2-1 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotenhof(home) | 2-2 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 16, 2026 | TSB Flensburg(away) | 0-1 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hohenwestedt(home) | 5-3 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 4, 2026 | VfR Neumünster(away) | 1-1 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kaltenkirchen(away) | 0-0 | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Nordmark Satrup win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Kilia Kiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Nordmark Satrup 5-0 Kilia Kiel | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Kilia Kiel 3-0 Nordmark Satrup | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Kilia Kiel 6-2 Nordmark Satrup | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
| Oct 3, 2024 | Nordmark Satrup 2-3 Kilia Kiel | Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein |
Last archived meeting: Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nordmark Satrup score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kilia Kiel score 3.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordmark Satrup | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Kilia Kiel | 3.1 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nordmark Satrup sit 6th in Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein (9 points from 5 matches) and Kilia Kiel sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Nordmark Satrup | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Kilia Kiel | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel?
- The Footlab model makes Kilia Kiel the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Nordmark Satrup.
- Where and when is Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel played?
- Nordmark Satrup vs Kilia Kiel is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at A-Platz Satrup, in the Oberliga - Schleswig-Holstein.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.