Where and when is North Texas vs Real Monarchs played?

North Texas vs Real Monarchs is played on September 5, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC) at Choctaw Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

North Texas vs Real Monarchs: prediction and stats

MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 5, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC)Choctaw Stadium, Arlington, Texas

North Texas

Real Monarchs

The Footlab model makes North Texas the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Real Monarchs. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win North Texas vs Real Monarchs?

A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate North Texas (1,633) and Real Monarchs (1,563).

North Texas win54 %

Draw23 %

Real Monarchs win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, North Texas have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Monarchs have 4, 2 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

North Texas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Minnesota United II(home)	1-1	MLS Next Pro
Aug 20, 2026	Austin II(home)	0-0	MLS Next Pro
Aug 16, 2026	Portland Timbers II(home)	0-3	MLS Next Pro
Aug 9, 2026	Tacoma Defiance(home)	3-1	MLS Next Pro
Aug 1, 2026	Ventura County(away)	1-6	MLS Next Pro

Real Monarchs
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Houston Dynamo FC II(away)	0-3	MLS Next Pro
Aug 2, 2026	St. Louis City II(away)	0-3	MLS Next Pro
Jul 26, 2026	Portland Timbers II(away)	0-1	MLS Next Pro
Jul 20, 2026	Tacoma Defiance(home)	2-4	MLS Next Pro
Jul 11, 2026	Vancouver Whitecaps II(home)	2-1	MLS Next Pro

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 North Texas win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Real Monarchs win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Real Monarchs 2-2 North Texas	MLS Next Pro
Sep 28, 2025	North Texas 2-4 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro
Jun 30, 2024	Real Monarchs 1-2 North Texas	MLS Next Pro
May 25, 2024	North Texas 2-1 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro
Aug 13, 2023	Real Monarchs 1-1 North Texas	MLS Next Pro
Apr 22, 2023	North Texas 0-1 Real Monarchs	MLS Next Pro

Last archived meeting: Real Monarchs vs North Texas on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

North Texas score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Real Monarchs score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
North Texas	1.4	1.5	4	7/15	7/15
Real Monarchs	1.3	2.0	1	9/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

North Texas sit 9th in MLS Next Pro (33 points from 23 matches) and Real Monarchs sit 11th (26 points from 22 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	North Texas	23	11	12	34	34	33
6	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26
9	North Texas	23	11	12	34	34	33
10	North Texas	21	9	12	33	33	29
11	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26
11	Real Monarchs	22	10	12	31	42	26

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for North Texas vs Real Monarchs?: The Footlab model makes North Texas the favourite at 54%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Real Monarchs.
Where and when is North Texas vs Real Monarchs played?: North Texas vs Real Monarchs is played on September 5, 2026 at 12:45 AM (UTC) at Choctaw Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.