Northern Ireland vs Georgia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Windsor Park, Belfast
The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Georgia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Northern Ireland (1,493) and Georgia (1,552).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Northern Ireland have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Georgia have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | France(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Guinea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Italy(away) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Luxembourg(home) | 1-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bahrain(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Romania(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Lithuania(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Israel(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Bulgaria(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Northern Ireland score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Georgia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland | 1.1 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Georgia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Northern Ireland vs Georgia?
- The Footlab model makes Northern Ireland the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Georgia.
- Where and when is Northern Ireland vs Georgia played?
- Northern Ireland vs Georgia is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Windsor Park, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.