Kosovo vs Austria: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, Prishtinë (Pristina)
The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Kosovo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kosovo vs Austria?
Austria starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,688 vs 1,550).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kosovo have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Austria have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Türkiye(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 4-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Switzerland(home) | 1-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 3-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 22, 2026 | Argentina(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Jordan(home) | 3-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | South Korea(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Kosovo score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Austria score 2.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosovo | 1.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Austria | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kosovo vs Austria?
- The Footlab model makes Austria the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Kosovo.
- Where and when is Kosovo vs Austria played?
- Kosovo vs Austria is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadiumi Fadil Vokrri, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.