Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Aviva Stadium, Dublin
The Footlab model makes Rep. Of Ireland the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Israel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Rep. Of Ireland (1,549) and Israel (1,509).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rep. Of Ireland have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Israel have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Canada(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 28, 2026 | Qatar(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| May 16, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Czechia(away) | 2-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Georgia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Moldova(home) | 4-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Lithuania(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Italy(away) | 0-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Rep. Of Ireland score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Israel score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rep. Of Ireland | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Israel | 1.7 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel?
- The Footlab model makes Rep. Of Ireland the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Israel.
- Where and when is Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel played?
- Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel is played on October 4, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Aviva Stadium, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.