Notts County vs Stevenage: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Meadow Lane, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire
The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Stevenage. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Notts County vs Stevenage?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Notts County (1,826) and Stevenage (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Notts County have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Stevenage have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Luton(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 1-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Notts County win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Stevenage win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2019 | Stevenage 0-3 Notts County | League Two |
| Sep 15, 2018 | Notts County 3-3 Stevenage | League Two |
| Feb 24, 2018 | Notts County 2-0 Stevenage | League Two |
| Nov 11, 2017 | Stevenage 1-1 Notts County | League Two |
| Mar 4, 2017 | Stevenage 3-0 Notts County | League Two |
| Aug 13, 2016 | Notts County 1-1 Stevenage | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Stevenage vs Notts County on Mar 30, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Notts County score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Stevenage score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 1.1 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Stevenage | 0.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Notts County sit 15th in League One (2 points from 2 matches) and Stevenage sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Notts County | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 19 | Stevenage | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Notts County vs Stevenage?
- The Footlab model makes Notts County the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Stevenage.
- Where and when is Notts County vs Stevenage played?
- Notts County vs Stevenage is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Meadow Lane, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.