Novaci vs Pelister: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Novatsi
The Footlab model makes Pelister the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Novaci. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novaci vs Pelister?
Pelister starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,547 vs 1,330).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novaci have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Pelister have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pelister(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kozuv Gevgelija(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Akademija Pandev(home) | 0-0 | Second League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kamjani(home) | 1-1 | Second League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Novaci(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Shkëndija Haraçinë(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2026 | Shkëndija Haraçinë(home) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Novaci win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Pelister win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Novaci 4-2 Pelister | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 27, 2025 | Novaci 0-0 Pelister | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Pelister 5-0 Novaci | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Novaci 1-3 Pelister | Second League |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Pelister 4-0 Novaci | Second League |
How many goals should we expect?
Novaci score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Pelister score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novaci | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Pelister | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novaci sit 12th in Second League (0 points from 2 matches) and Pelister sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Pelister | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | Novaci | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novaci vs Pelister?
- The Footlab model makes Pelister the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Novaci.
- Where and when is Novaci vs Pelister played?
- Novaci vs Pelister is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.