Novosibirsk vs Kaluga: prediction and stats
Second League A - Division A GoldFall Season Gold - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Novosibirsk
The Footlab model makes Novosibirsk the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Kaluga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Novosibirsk (1,801) and Kaluga (1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novosibirsk have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Kaluga have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FK Sokol Saratov(away) | 2-2 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(home) | 2-2 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | KDV(away) | 2-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(away) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 1-3 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Avangard Kursk(away) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mashuk-KMV(away) | 1-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Iskra Smolensk(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Novosibirsk win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Kaluga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Kaluga 0-1 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Novosibirsk 1-0 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Kaluga 1-2 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Jun 7, 2025 | Novosibirsk 3-0 Kaluga | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Kaluga 2-0 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Spring Season Silver |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Novosibirsk 2-0 Kaluga | Second League A - Division A Gold |
Last archived meeting: Kaluga vs Novosibirsk on Jul 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Novosibirsk score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Kaluga score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novosibirsk | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Kaluga | 0.9 | 0.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novosibirsk sit 6th in Second League A - Division A Gold (7 points from 5 matches) and Kaluga sit 10th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Novosibirsk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Kaluga | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novosibirsk vs Kaluga?
- The Footlab model makes Novosibirsk the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Kaluga.
- Where and when is Novosibirsk vs Kaluga played?
- Novosibirsk vs Kaluga is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the Second League A - Division A Gold.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.