Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk: prediction and stats
Second League A - Division A GoldFall Season Gold - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Rodina, Khimki
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva II the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Novosibirsk. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk?
A very open match: only 8 Elo points separate Rodina Moskva II (1,792) and Novosibirsk (1,801).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rodina Moskva II have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Novosibirsk have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(away) | 1-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(home) | 3-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kaluga(away) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Novosibirsk(away) | 3-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Dinamo Vladivostok(home) | 0-0 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FK Sokol Saratov(away) | 2-2 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Volgar Astrakhan(home) | 2-2 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 12, 2026 | KDV(away) | 2-2 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Bryansk(away) | 0-1 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II(home) | 1-3 | Second League A - Division A Gold |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rodina Moskva II win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Novosibirsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Novosibirsk 1-3 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| May 17, 2026 | Rodina Moskva II 1-1 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Novosibirsk 1-0 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Division A Gold |
| Apr 24, 2024 | Novosibirsk 1-1 Rodina Moskva II | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Rodina Moskva II 1-2 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Spring Season Gold |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Rodina Moskva II 1-1 Novosibirsk | Second League A - Division A Silver |
Last archived meeting: Novosibirsk vs Rodina Moskva II on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rodina Moskva II score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Novosibirsk score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodina Moskva II | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Novosibirsk | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rodina Moskva II sit 1st in Second League A - Division A Gold (11 points from 5 matches) and Novosibirsk sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodina Moskva II | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Novosibirsk | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva II the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Novosibirsk.
- Where and when is Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk played?
- Rodina Moskva II vs Novosibirsk is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Rodina, in the Second League A - Division A Gold.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.