Where and when is Numancia vs Atlético Astorga played?

Numancia vs Atlético Astorga is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Numancia vs Atlético Astorga: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 20Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria

Numancia

Atlético Astorga

The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Atlético Astorga. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Numancia vs Atlético Astorga?

A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Numancia (1,942) and Atlético Astorga (1,888).

Numancia win52 %

Draw26 %

Atlético Astorga win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Numancia have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Atlético Astorga have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Numancia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Zaragoza(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 17, 2026	Poblense(away)	1-2	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 10, 2026	Poblense(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Marino de Luanco(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Langreo(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Atlético Astorga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	La Bañeza(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	UD Ourense(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Sarriana(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Numancia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Atlético Astorga win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 15, 2026	Numancia 0-1 Atlético Astorga	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 20, 2025	Atlético Astorga 1-0 Numancia	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Numancia vs Atlético Astorga on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Numancia score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Numancia	1.3	0.9	4	9/15	7/15
Atlético Astorga	1.3	1.3	5	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Numancia vs Atlético Astorga?: The Footlab model makes Numancia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Atlético Astorga.
Where and when is Numancia vs Atlético Astorga played?: Numancia vs Atlético Astorga is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.