Mortágua vs O Elvas: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 10Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for O Elvas. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mortágua wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,793 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs O Elvas?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,851) and O Elvas (1,910).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mortágua vs O Elvas
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mortágua
4-3-3- 10João Pais
- 45S. Camara
- 27J. Rianco
- 16A. Sena
- 7Artur Simionato
- 23I. Afonso Figueiredo Antunes
- 2H. Lopes
- 39J. Ferrao
- 5C. Silva
- 3T. Pereira
- 55A. Verdade
O Elvas
Not enough data to predict the O Elvas lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 07:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; O Elvas have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Leça(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | UD da Serra(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Fazendense(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | SC Covilha(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | São Roque (Açores)(home) | 9-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Mortágua wins, 1 draw, 1 O Elvas win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2024 | O Elvas 1-0 Mortágua | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Mortágua 1-1 O Elvas | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; O Elvas score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 0.9 | 1.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| O Elvas | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (10 points from 4 matches) and O Elvas sit 2nd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 | O Elvas | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
A question about Mortágua vs O Elvas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs O Elvas?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mortágua the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for O Elvas.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs O Elvas played?
- Mortágua vs O Elvas is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.