Oldham vs Accrington ST: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Boundary Park, Oldham, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oldham vs Accrington ST?
Oldham starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,775 vs 1,672).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oldham have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Accrington ST have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Oldham win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Accrington ST win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Oldham 3-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Accrington ST 1-0 Oldham | League Two |
| Aug 5, 2025 | Accrington ST 3-1 Oldham | League Cup |
| Aug 24, 2021 | Oldham 0-0 Accrington ST | League Cup |
| Oct 8, 2019 | Oldham 0-3 Accrington ST | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Oldham vs Accrington ST on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Oldham score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oldham sit 12th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Accrington ST sit 19th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Oldham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oldham vs Accrington ST?
- The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 50%, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Oldham vs Accrington ST played?
- Oldham vs Accrington ST is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Boundary Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.