Port Vale vs Grimsby: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Vale Park, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Port Vale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Port Vale vs Grimsby?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Port Vale (1,782) and Grimsby (1,834).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Port Vale have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Grimsby have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tranmere(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oldham(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wolves(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Port Vale win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Grimsby win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 21, 2025 | Port Vale 2-2 Grimsby | League Two |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Grimsby 3-0 Port Vale | League Two |
| Jul 21, 2023 | Port Vale 1-1 Grimsby | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2021 | Grimsby 1-0 Port Vale | League Two |
| Jan 9, 2021 | Port Vale 3-0 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 24, 2019 | Grimsby 5-2 Port Vale | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Port Vale score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 0.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Port Vale sit 20th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and Grimsby sit 8th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 20 | Port Vale | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Port Vale vs Grimsby?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Port Vale.
- Where and when is Port Vale vs Grimsby played?
- Port Vale vs Grimsby is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Vale Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.