Swindon Town vs Crewe: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The County Ground, Swindon, Wiltshire
The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Crewe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Swindon Town vs Crewe?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Swindon Town (1,789) and Crewe (1,780).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Swindon Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Crewe have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Swindon Town win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Crewe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Swindon Town 1-2 Crewe | League Two |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Crewe 0-3 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Swindon Town 0-0 Crewe | League Two |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Crewe 0-0 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Crewe 2-1 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Swindon Town 2-2 Crewe | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Crewe on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Swindon Town sit 7th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Crewe sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
- The Footlab model makes Swindon Town the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Crewe.
- Where and when is Swindon Town vs Crewe played?
- Swindon Town vs Crewe is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The County Ground, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.