Shrewsbury vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Croud Meadow, Shrewsbury, Shropshire
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Shrewsbury. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shrewsbury vs Exeter City?
Exeter City starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,766 vs 1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shrewsbury have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shrewsbury win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Exeter City 2-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Shrewsbury 0-2 Exeter City | League One |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Shrewsbury 0-3 Exeter City | League One |
| Nov 28, 2023 | Exeter City 0-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Exeter City 0-0 Shrewsbury | League One |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Shrewsbury 3-2 Exeter City | League One |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Shrewsbury on Mar 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Shrewsbury score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shrewsbury sit 24th in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Exeter City sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 24 | Shrewsbury | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shrewsbury vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Shrewsbury.
- Where and when is Shrewsbury vs Exeter City played?
- Shrewsbury vs Exeter City is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Croud Meadow, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.