Oldham vs Swindon Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Boundary Park, Oldham, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Swindon Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oldham vs Swindon Town?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Oldham (1,781) and Swindon Town (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oldham have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Swindon Town have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Port Vale(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Northampton(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Oldham win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Swindon Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Swindon Town 3-0 Oldham | League Two |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Oldham 1-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Mar 12, 2022 | Swindon Town 1-0 Oldham | League Two |
| Oct 30, 2021 | Oldham 1-3 Swindon Town | League Two |
| Dec 14, 2019 | Swindon Town 2-0 Oldham | League Two |
| Apr 13, 2019 | Oldham 2-2 Swindon Town | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Swindon Town vs Oldham on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Oldham score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Swindon Town score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Swindon Town | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oldham sit 12th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Swindon Town sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Swindon Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Oldham | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oldham vs Swindon Town?
- The Footlab model makes Oldham the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Swindon Town.
- Where and when is Oldham vs Swindon Town played?
- Oldham vs Swindon Town is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Boundary Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.