Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Fleetwood Town. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Grimsby (1,840) and Fleetwood Town (1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grimsby have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Grimsby win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Grimsby 1-0 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Jan 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town 0-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Grimsby 2-1 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Fleetwood Town 1-0 Grimsby | League Two |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Fleetwood Town 1-0 Grimsby | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 6, 2012 | Fleetwood Town 2-1 Grimsby | National League |
Last archived meeting: Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grimsby sit 8th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes Grimsby the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 21% for Fleetwood Town.
- Where and when is Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town played?
- Grimsby vs Fleetwood Town is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Blundell Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.