Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Broadfield Stadium, Crawley, West Sussex
The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Crawley Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Crawley Town (1,678) and Bristol Rovers (1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crawley Town have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rochdale(away) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Watford(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | York(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Reading(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Crawley Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Bristol Rovers 3-1 Crawley Town | League Two |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Crawley Town 4-0 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Crawley Town 1-0 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Bristol Rovers 0-0 Crawley Town | League One |
| Dec 5, 2023 | Crawley Town 2-1 Bristol Rovers | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 9, 2022 | Crawley Town 1-0 Bristol Rovers | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Crawley Town score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crawley Town sit 15th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Crawley Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Bristol Rovers the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for Crawley Town.
- Where and when is Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Crawley Town vs Bristol Rovers is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Broadfield Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.