Oltrepò vs Varesina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D · Matchday 15Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Oltrepò. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varesina wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oltrepò vs Varesina?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Oltrepò (1,657) and Varesina (1,728).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Oltrepò vs Varesina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Oltrepò
Not enough data to predict the Oltrepò lineup.
Varesina
Not enough data to predict the Varesina lineup.
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 07:26 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oltrepò have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Varesina have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Crema(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Solbiatese(away) | 0-4 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Pontedera(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cittadella Vis Modena(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Città di Varese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Coriano(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Città di Varese(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Castellanzese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Pro Sesto(home) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone D |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pavia(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone D |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Oltrepò win, 0 draws, 1 Varesina win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Oltrepò 0-1 Varesina | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Varesina 2-3 Oltrepò | Serie D - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Oltrepò score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Varesina score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oltrepò | 0.8 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Varesina | 1.4 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oltrepò sit 18th in Serie D - Girone D (5 points from 11 matches) and Varesina sit 14th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Varesina | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 18 | Oltrepò | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 24 | 5 |
A question about Oltrepò vs Varesina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oltrepò vs Varesina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varesina the favourite at 48%, against 28% for a draw and 24% for Oltrepò.
- Where and when is Oltrepò vs Varesina played?
- Oltrepò vs Varesina is played on December 6, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.