Oltrepò vs Castellanzese: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone DGroup D - 20Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Castellanzese. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oltrepò vs Castellanzese?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Oltrepò (1,721) and Castellanzese (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oltrepò have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Castellanzese have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Brusaporto(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Villa Valle(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Sondrio(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Real Calepina(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Varesina(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| May 3, 2026 | Virtus Ciserano Bergamo(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Milan II(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Chievo(away) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Leon Monza e Brianza(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Oltrepò win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Castellanzese win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Oltrepò 2-0 Castellanzese | Serie D - Girone B |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Castellanzese 2-2 Oltrepò | Serie D - Girone B |
Last archived meeting: Oltrepò vs Castellanzese on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Oltrepò score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Castellanzese score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oltrepò | 1.3 | 0.9 | 7 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Castellanzese | 1.0 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oltrepò vs Castellanzese?
- The Footlab model makes Oltrepò the favourite at 40%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Castellanzese.
- Where and when is Oltrepò vs Castellanzese played?
- Oltrepò vs Castellanzese is played on January 17, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC), in the Serie D - Girone D.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.