Where and when is Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights played?

Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Championship Soccer Stadium, Irvine, California

Orange County SC

Las Vegas Lights

The Footlab model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Las Vegas Lights. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Orange County SC (1,721) and Las Vegas Lights (1,683).

Orange County SC win37 %

Draw27 %

Las Vegas Lights win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orange County SC have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Las Vegas Lights have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Orange County SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	FC Tulsa(home)	1-5	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Louisville City(home)	2-3	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(home)	0-3	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	Monterey Bay(away)	2-1	USL Championship

Las Vegas Lights
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Lexington(away)	0-2	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Brooklyn(home)	2-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Miami FC(away)	1-0	USL Championship
Aug 6, 2026	Oakland Roots(home)	0-0	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	Phoenix Rising(home)	1-1	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Orange County SC win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Las Vegas Lights win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jun 21, 2026	Las Vegas Lights 2-3 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Mar 8, 2026	Orange County SC 1-1 Las Vegas Lights	USL Championship
Jul 20, 2025	Orange County SC 4-0 Las Vegas Lights	USL Championship
Apr 27, 2025	Orange County SC 1-3 Las Vegas Lights	USL League One Cup
Apr 6, 2025	Las Vegas Lights 1-0 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Oct 6, 2024	Las Vegas Lights 1-1 Orange County SC	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Las Vegas Lights vs Orange County SC on Jun 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Orange County SC score 1.7 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Las Vegas Lights score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Orange County SC	1.7	2.1	1	12/15	12/15
Las Vegas Lights	1.1	1.1	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Orange County SC sit 2nd in USL Championship (20 points from 12 matches) and Las Vegas Lights sit 10th (15 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
2	Orange County SC	21	9	7	5	32	30	34
8	Las Vegas Lights	21	8	5	8	28	30	29
10	Las Vegas Lights	12	4	3	5	18	20	15

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights?: The Footlab model makes Orange County SC the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Las Vegas Lights.
Where and when is Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights played?: Orange County SC vs Las Vegas Lights is played on September 13, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Championship Soccer Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.