Where and when is Lexington vs Orange County SC played?

Lexington vs Orange County SC is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lexington SC Stadium, in the USL Championship.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lexington vs Orange County SC: prediction and stats

USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Lexington SC Stadium, Lexington, Kentucky

Lexington

Orange County SC

The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Orange County SC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lexington vs Orange County SC?

A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Lexington (1,764) and Orange County SC (1,721).

Lexington win52 %

Draw24 %

Orange County SC win24 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lexington have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Orange County SC have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lexington
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Las Vegas Lights(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Sacramento Republic(away)	0-1	USL Championship
Aug 8, 2026	Phoenix Rising(home)	1-0	USL Championship
Aug 1, 2026	Monterey Bay(home)	3-2	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	FC Tulsa(away)	0-0	USL Championship

Orange County SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	FC Tulsa(home)	1-5	USL Championship
Aug 16, 2026	Louisville City(home)	2-3	USL Championship
Aug 9, 2026	Tampa Bay Rowdies(home)	0-3	USL Championship
Aug 2, 2026	El Paso Locomotive(home)	2-0	USL Championship
Jul 26, 2026	Monterey Bay(away)	2-1	USL Championship

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Lexington win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Orange County SC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2026	Orange County SC 0-0 Lexington	USL Championship
Sep 12, 2025	Lexington 1-1 Orange County SC	USL Championship
Mar 16, 2025	Orange County SC 2-2 Lexington	USL Championship

Last archived meeting: Orange County SC vs Lexington on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lexington score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Orange County SC score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lexington	1.7	1.2	6	8/15	7/15
Orange County SC	1.7	2.1	1	12/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lexington sit 8th in USL Championship (15 points from 12 matches) and Orange County SC sit 2nd (20 points from 12 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Orange County SC	12	5	5	2	15	11	20
2	Orange County SC	21	9	7	5	32	30	34
7	Lexington	20	9	4	7	30	23	31
8	Lexington	12	4	3	5	17	15	15

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lexington vs Orange County SC?: The Footlab model makes Lexington the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Orange County SC.
Where and when is Lexington vs Orange County SC played?: Lexington vs Orange County SC is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Lexington SC Stadium, in the USL Championship.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.