Ørn Horten vs Sarpsborg 08 II: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 6Regular Season - 18Kick-off on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Lystlunden Stadion, Horten
The Footlab model makes Ørn Horten the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ørn Horten vs Sarpsborg 08 II?
Ørn Horten starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,629 vs 1,514).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ørn Horten have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sarpsborg 08 II have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Flint(away) | 0-2 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gjøvik-Lyn(home) | 1-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Elverum(away) | 0-1 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Raelingen(home) | 0-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 II(away) | 3-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Fram(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brumunddal(home) | 11-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Oppsal(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ørn Horten(home) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Bjørkelangen(away) | 0-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ørn Horten win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sarpsborg 08 II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sarpsborg 08 II 2-3 Ørn Horten | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Ørn Horten 5-1 Sarpsborg 08 II | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 II 3-1 Ørn Horten | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 30, 2021 | Ørn Horten 2-4 Sarpsborg 08 II | 3. Division - Girone 2 |
Last archived meeting: Sarpsborg 08 II vs Ørn Horten on Jul 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ørn Horten score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Sarpsborg 08 II score 2.2 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ørn Horten | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sarpsborg 08 II | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ørn Horten sit 6th in 3. Division - Girone 6 (25 points from 16 matches) and Sarpsborg 08 II sit 11th (15 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 25 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ørn Horten vs Sarpsborg 08 II?
- The Footlab model makes Ørn Horten the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Sarpsborg 08 II.
- Where and when is Ørn Horten vs Sarpsborg 08 II played?
- Ørn Horten vs Sarpsborg 08 II is played on September 7, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Lystlunden Stadion, in the 3. Division - Girone 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.