Sarpsborg 08 II vs Lillehammer: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 6Regular Season - 19Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg
The Footlab model makes Lillehammer the favourite at 56%, against 20% for a draw and 24% for Sarpsborg 08 II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sarpsborg 08 II vs Lillehammer?
Lillehammer starts as the favourite with a 227-point Elo edge (1,742 vs 1,515).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sarpsborg 08 II have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Lillehammer have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Fram(away) | 0-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Brumunddal(home) | 11-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Oppsal(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ørn Horten(home) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Bjørkelangen(away) | 0-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Strommen(home) | 2-4 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lyn II(home) | 4-1 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gjøvik-Lyn(away) | 2-0 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Drøbak / Frogn(home) | 2-1 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Raelingen(away) | 4-2 | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Sarpsborg 08 II win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Lillehammer win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2026 | Lillehammer 6-1 Sarpsborg 08 II | 3. Division - Girone 6 |
Last archived meeting: Lillehammer vs Sarpsborg 08 II on Apr 27, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sarpsborg 08 II score 2.2 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Lillehammer score 3.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarpsborg 08 II | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Lillehammer | 3.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sarpsborg 08 II sit 11th in 3. Division - Girone 6 (15 points from 16 matches) and Lillehammer sit 1st (41 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 16 | 13 | 2 | 1 | 60 | 21 | 41 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 39 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sarpsborg 08 II vs Lillehammer?
- The Footlab model makes Lillehammer the favourite at 56%, against 20% for a draw and 24% for Sarpsborg 08 II.
- Where and when is Sarpsborg 08 II vs Lillehammer played?
- Sarpsborg 08 II vs Lillehammer is played on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Sarpsborg Stadion, in the 3. Division - Girone 6.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.