Osogovo vs Novaci: prediction and stats
Second LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Nikola Mantov, Kočani
The Footlab model makes Osogovo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Novaci. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Osogovo vs Novaci?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Osogovo (1,343) and Novaci (1,329).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Osogovo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Novaci have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kamjani(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belasica(away) | 0-1 | Second League |
| May 23, 2026 | Novaci(away) | 3-3 | Second League |
| May 16, 2026 | Bregalnica Štip(home) | 0-3 | Second League |
| May 10, 2026 | Vardar Negotino(away) | 4-0 | Second League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pelister(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kozuv Gevgelija(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Osogovo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Novaci win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Novaci 3-3 Osogovo | Second League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Osogovo 0-0 Novaci | Second League |
| May 6, 2025 | Osogovo 2-0 Novaci | Second League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Novaci 5-0 Osogovo | Second League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Osogovo 1-0 Novaci | Second League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Novaci 1-2 Osogovo | Second League |
How many goals should we expect?
Osogovo score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Novaci score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osogovo | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Novaci | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Osogovo sit 11th in Second League (0 points from 2 matches) and Novaci sit 12th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Osogovo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Novaci | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Osogovo vs Novaci?
- The Footlab model makes Osogovo the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Novaci.
- Where and when is Osogovo vs Novaci played?
- Osogovo vs Novaci is played on August 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Nikola Mantov, in the Second League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.