Novaci vs Ohrid: prediction and stats
CupRound of 32Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Metallurg, Novatsi
The Footlab model makes Ohrid the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Novaci. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novaci vs Ohrid?
Ohrid starts as the favourite with a 149-point Elo edge (1,479 vs 1,330).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novaci have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ohrid have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belasica(home) | 0-1 | Second League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 1-2 | Second League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pelister(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kozuv Gevgelija(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ohrid(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Novaci(home) | 2-1 | Second League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Novaci(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sloga Vinica(home) | 7-1 | Second League |
| May 16, 2026 | Detonit Plachkovica(away) | 2-0 | Second League |
| May 10, 2026 | Golemo Konjari(home) | 3-0 | Second League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Novaci win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Ohrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ohrid 2-1 Novaci | Second League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ohrid 1-0 Novaci | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Ohrid 3-0 Novaci | Second League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Novaci 0-1 Ohrid | Second League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Novaci 2-1 Ohrid | Second League |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Ohrid 3-1 Novaci | Second League |
How many goals should we expect?
Novaci score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Ohrid score 2.2 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novaci | 1.1 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Ohrid | 2.2 | 0.6 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novaci vs Ohrid?
- The Footlab model makes Ohrid the favourite at 76%, against 16% for a draw and 8% for Novaci.
- Where and when is Novaci vs Ohrid played?
- Novaci vs Ohrid is played on September 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Metallurg, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.