Oxford United vs Plymouth: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 21Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Kassam Stadium, Oxford, Oxfordshire
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Oxford United vs Plymouth?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Oxford United (1,857) and Plymouth (1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Oxford United have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Plymouth have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 2-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Oxford United win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Plymouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2025 | Plymouth 1-1 Oxford United | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Oxford United 2-0 Plymouth | Championship |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Oxford United 1-3 Plymouth | League One |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Plymouth 1-0 Oxford United | League One |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Plymouth 1-0 Oxford United | League One |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Oxford United 1-3 Plymouth | League One |
Last archived meeting: Plymouth vs Oxford United on Jan 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Oxford United score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Plymouth score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford United | 1.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Plymouth | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Oxford United sit 5th in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and Plymouth sit 22nd (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Oxford United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Oxford United vs Plymouth?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Oxford United.
- Where and when is Oxford United vs Plymouth played?
- Oxford United vs Plymouth is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Kassam Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.