Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Home Park, Plymouth
The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Milton Keynes Dons. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Plymouth (1,938) and Milton Keynes Dons (1,868).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plymouth have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Milton Keynes Dons have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Coventry(home) | 2-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockport County(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Tavistock(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Oxford United(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 1-4 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Barnet(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Plymouth win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Milton Keynes Dons win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2024 | Milton Keynes Dons 0-1 Plymouth | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 1, 2023 | Plymouth 3-1 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-4 Plymouth | League One |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Plymouth 0-5 Milton Keynes Dons | League One |
| Dec 8, 2021 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Plymouth | League One |
| Mar 16, 2021 | Milton Keynes Dons 2-1 Plymouth | League One |
Last archived meeting: Milton Keynes Dons vs Plymouth on Aug 3, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Plymouth score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Milton Keynes Dons score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Plymouth sit 22nd in League One (1 points from 2 matches) and Milton Keynes Dons sit 14th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| 22 | Plymouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons?
- The Footlab model makes Plymouth the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Milton Keynes Dons.
- Where and when is Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons played?
- Plymouth vs Milton Keynes Dons is played on December 29, 2026 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Home Park, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.